Environmental factors influencing the dynamics of Chinese mitten crab zoeae in the San Francisco Bay-Delta

The Chinese mitten crab is an invasive catadromous species that has populated many European estuaries. However, despite repeated ‘introductions’, the only known established North American population is in the San Francisco Bay Delta, along with recent populations discovered in Chesapeake Bay and the Hudson River. In established populations, adult mitten crab numbers oscillate dramatically, and large numbers of crabs can have severe environmental impacts. Extremely little is known about the biology and ecology of juvenile stages, but understanding the factors behind new cohort survival is crucial for understanding the dynamics of newly-established populations. In this study, we use the only known long-term life-history data set to assess the relative importance of reproductive potential and environmental factors in regulating mitten crab population dynamics in San Francisco Bay. Both exploratory regression tree and bivariate data analyses support the hypotheses that concentrations of planktonic zoeae are strongly influenced by interactions between the number of breeding female crabs, the timing of reproduction, and water temperature. Additional studies are needed in other estuaries invaded by mitten crabs to test the generalities of these relationships and further evaluate the potential of these relationships to inform predictions about the extent and magnitude of mitten crab populations.