Masters Thesis

Projections of Taiwan's economic growth

Since World War II, there lias been increasing reeognition of the problems of economic development. This has focused wide attention on the economically less developed countries of the world. During this period the economic growth of Taiwan has been outstanding among Asiatic countries, countries which have always been economically underdeveloped. Its growth rate of economy is one of the highest in Asia. This study uses statistical models to forecast future economic development of Taiwan based on past data from 1952 to 1962. The trend of future economic development in Taiwan for 1963-1972 is forecasted. The results obtained from the model will, of course, very likely not be the exact path of future development, they merely show the most probable pattern of future economic growth based on past data and the forecasting techniques used in this study. Given the forecasts in this study (particularly Taiwan's projected rapid population growth) and Taiwan's island economy, the significance of international trade is all the mors clearly manifest for the course of her induetralizat ion, However, all of this auguros well for the future.

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