Using Dynamics Indicator of Basic Early Literacy-Oral Reading Fluency to predict performance on the California Standards Test-English Language Arts test

Several studies have shown a strong connection between low-stakes and high-stakes assessment results. The current study examined which of the Dynamics Indicator of Basic Early Literacy-Oral Reading Fluency (DIBELS-ORF) benchmark goals, old or new, is more predictive of performance on the end of the year California Standards Test-English Language Arts (CST-ELA). Comparing old to new DIBELS benchmark goals? ability to predict performance on the CST-ELA test could help educators select specific benchmark goals for students? oral reading fluency performance. Archival data were collected from three schools in Central California from students in second grade for the 2012-2013 academic school year. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive power, and overall correct classification of DIBELS-ORF for the California CST-ELA test were calculated for the 2012-2013 school year, separately for fall, winter, and spring assessment periods. It was predicted that the new DIBELS-ORF benchmark goals would have greater sensitivity. This was supported; sensitivity was higher for the new benchmarks. However, the overall correct classification decreased with the new benchmark goals. Using the new benchmark goals, schools may be overidentifying students for intensive instruction, causing schools to unnecessarily spend funds on resources not actually needed by students.